Set Handicap: Pavel Kotov (-1.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Pavel Kotov (-1.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 51%. A YES share costs 51.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 96.1% over 5d.

Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov$11k liquidity$182 volumecloses 5d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 51.0¢
Implied chance: 51.0%
Return if right: 96.1%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.

YES wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $100.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 51.0¢
Implied chance: 51.0%
Return if right: 96.1%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.

NO wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.92 of that profit. Without it you would make $100.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 10:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Pavel Kotov (-1.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Pavel Kotov and Luca Castelnuovo in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Pavel Kotov" if Pavel Kotov wins by 2 or more sets than Luca Castelnuovo, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Luca Castelnuovo." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Pavel Kotov can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Luca Castelnuovo." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current