Game Spread: Pavel Kotov (-3.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+3.5)

Q: Game Spread: Pavel Kotov (-3.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+3.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 16%. A YES share costs 16.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 525.0% over 5d.

Chengdu Open, Qualification: Luca Castelnuovo vs Pavel Kotov$381 liquidity$4k volumecloses 5d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 16.0¢
Implied chance: 16.0%
Return if right: 525.0%
Spread cost: 32%

If you put in $100

You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.

YES wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $244.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 93.0¢
Implied chance: 93.0%
Return if right: 7.5%
Spread cost: 42%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 10:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Game Spread: Pavel Kotov (-3.5) vs Luca Castelnuovo (+3.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Pavel Kotov" if Pavel Kotov wins 3.5 or more total games than Luca Castelnuovo in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Luca Castelnuovo". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Pavel Kotov could no longer have finished 3.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Luca Castelnuovo". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current