Set 1 Winner: Alina Charaeva vs Sofia Kenin

Q: Set 1 Winner: Alina Charaeva vs Sofia Kenin

Prediction markets currently price this at 36%. A YES share costs 36.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 177.8% over 4d.

Korea Open: Alina Charaeva vs Sofia Kenin$511 liquidity$595 volumecloses 4d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 36.0¢
Implied chance: 36.0%
Return if right: 177.8%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 277.8 shares at 36.0¢ each.

YES wins: $277.78 back, a profit of $177.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $50.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $227.87.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 75.0¢
Implied chance: 75.0%
Return if right: 33.3%
Spread cost: 24%

If you put in $100

You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.

NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $43.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 11:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Venus Williams bows out of US Open with straight-sets defeat to Sofia KeninAl Jazeera · 24d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set 1 Winner: Alina Charaeva vs Sofia Kenin”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Alina Charaeva and Sofia Kenin in the Korea Open, originally scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Alina Charaeva” if Alina Charaeva wins the first set. It will resolve to “Sofia Kenin” if Sofia Kenin wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by October 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.

Source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores