Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.2¢
- Implied chance
- 0.2%
- Return if right
- 49900.0%
- Spread cost
- 25%
If you put in $100
You get 50000.0 shares at 0.2¢ each.
YES wins: $50000.00 back, a profit of $49900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $66566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Yair Lapid0.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu33.5%
- Moshe Feiglin0.1%
- Yoaz Hendel0.3%
- Yossi Cohen0.1%
- Gideon Sa’ar0.3%
Latest: Aug 10, 02:15 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 17h ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 18h ago
- Murphy says Israel ‘not aligned’ with U.S. national security objectivesThe Hill · 20h ago
- Iran War Timeline: Key Moments and Attacks In U.S. and Israel’s CampaignThe New York Times · 21h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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