Will voter turnout in the 2026 Quebec general election be 74% or more?

Q: Will voter turnout in the 2026 Quebec general election be 74% or more?

Prediction markets currently price this at 18%. A YES share costs 18.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 455.6% over 1.1mo.

Quebec General Election: Turnout$9k liquidity$36 volumecloses 1.1mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 18.0¢
Implied chance: 18.0%
Return if right: 455.6%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 555.6 shares at 18.0¢ each.

YES wins: $555.56 back, a profit of $455.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $50.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 85.0¢
Implied chance: 85.0%
Return if right: 17.6%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.

NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 1, 07:07 PM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the next Quebec general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

Source: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca