Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 66.0¢
- Implied chance
- 66.0%
- Return if right
- 51.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 151.5 shares at 66.0¢ each.
YES wins: $151.52 back, a profit of $51.52. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $52.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 35.0¢
- Implied chance
- 35.0%
- Return if right
- 185.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.
NO wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $189.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 07:27 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russian court bars only anti-war party from standing in parliamentary electionsBBC News · 1h ago
- Russian Athletics files new claim against sanctionsBBC Sport · 6h ago
- Russian forces in Syria will give up control of two strategic bases on the Mediterranean coastFrance 24 · 6h ago
- Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian city of Nizhnekamsk kills 12, authorities sayABC News · 6h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on Russian oil-refining city kills 12 peopleFrance 24 · 6h ago
- Ukraine: Russian bombs injure five civilians in Sumy, authorities sayFrance 24 · 10h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russ…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
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