Will Umar Hayat win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $427.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $1438.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Umar Hayat6.5%
- Scott Gillingham74.5%
- Christopher Clacio3.6%
- Johnny Calderon7.0%
- Michael Vogiatzakis6.0%
- Joshua Pagdato6.0%
Latest: Aug 10, 10:25 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Umar Hayat win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Winnipeg as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Winnipeg.
Other outcomes in Winnipeg Mayoral Election
- Will Mazher Alam win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Noah Redden win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Michael Vogiatzakis win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Johnny Calderon win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Zachary Uminski win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Don Woodstock win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Christopher Clacio win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Joshua Pagdato win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?
- Will Scott Gillingham win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?