Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.1¢
- Implied chance
- 8.1%
- Return if right
- 1134.6%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 1234.6 shares at 8.1¢ each.
YES wins: $1234.57 back, a profit of $1134.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $107.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $1242.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.2¢
- Implied chance
- 93.2%
- Return if right
- 7.3%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 107.3 shares at 93.2¢ each.
NO wins: $107.30 back, a profit of $7.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Senate Republican: Iranian leaders 'part of a colony of reptiles' that also includes China, Russia, North KoreaThe Hill · 9h ago
- North Korea's Fake Job Interviews Drained $11M From 7,000 Crypto WalletsDecrypt · 1d ago
- South Korea’s leader is seeking a new approach to North Korea.The New York Times · 2d ago
- South Korean president says Trump should ease sanctions on North KoreaThe Hill · 2d ago
- North Korea's Kim lauds test of apparent new hypersonic missileCBS News · 2d ago
- North Korea touts new weapons system described as hypersonicABC News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If Donald J. Trump visits North Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of North Korea. Whether or not Trump enters North Korean airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.