Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $64.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $2464.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.2¢
- Implied chance
- 96.2%
- Return if right
- 4.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 104.0 shares at 96.2¢ each.
NO wins: $103.95 back, a profit of $3.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Education Department announces earliest FAFSA launch in program historyThe Hill · 2d ago
- Judge strikes down anti-DEI grant policy at Education DepartmentThe Hill · 7d ago
- Special education head at Education Department abruptly resignsNPR · 16d ago
- Parents are winning — and the Department of Education is leading the chargeThe Hill · 1mo ago
- When is suspending students discrimination? Education Department renews an old fightNPR · 1mo ago
- Trump admin touts efforts to shut down Education Department as school year beginsABC News · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.