Will Trump deport less than 200k people?

Q: Will Trump deport less than 200k people?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 2.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 4247.8% over 4.7mo.

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?$13k liquidity$10k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsImmigrationTrumpGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.3¢
Implied chance: 2.3%
Return if right: 4247.8%
Spread cost: 29%

If you put in $100

You get 4347.8 shares at 2.3¢ each.

YES wins: $4347.83 back, a profit of $4247.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1712.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $5960.61.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.0¢
Implied chance: 99.0%
Return if right: 1.0%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.

NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.68.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:09 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump deport less than 200k people?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.