Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

Q: Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

Prediction markets currently price this at 18%. A YES share costs 18.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 455.6% over 4.7mo.

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?$554 liquidity$15k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsImmigrationTrumpGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 18.0¢
Implied chance: 18.0%
Return if right: 455.6%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 555.6 shares at 18.0¢ each.

YES wins: $555.56 back, a profit of $455.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $134.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 27%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 11:08 PM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump deport 300-400k people?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.