Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Q: Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Prediction markets currently price this at 28%. A YES share costs 28.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 257.1% over 4.7mo.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?$27k liquidity$45k volumecloses 4.7mo

PoliticsputinRussiaTrump PresidencyWorldGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 28.0¢
Implied chance: 28.0%
Return if right: 257.1%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 357.1 shares at 28.0¢ each.

YES wins: $357.14 back, a profit of $257.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $263.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 73.0¢
Implied chance: 73.0%
Return if right: 37.0%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 137.0 shares at 73.0¢ each.

NO wins: $136.99 back, a profit of $36.99. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $37.93.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 11:07 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.