Will Tony Chaves win the 2026 Cambridge mayoral election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.9¢
- Implied chance
- 7.9%
- Return if right
- 1165.8%
- Spread cost
- 46%
If you put in $100
You get 1265.8 shares at 7.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1265.82 back, a profit of $1165.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1006.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $2172.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.1¢
- Implied chance
- 99.1%
- Return if right
- 0.9%
- Spread cost
- 80%
If you put in $100
You get 100.9 shares at 99.1¢ each.
NO wins: $100.91 back, a profit of $0.91. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 9, 01:12 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Senior academics set out key questions Cambridge must answer over Jason Arday’s deathThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Facebook found liable for deceiving users in Cambridge Analytica caseCBS News · 13d ago
- Cambridge Abandons Plans to Fully Investigate Its Hiring of Jason ArdayThe New York Times · 14d ago
- Cambridge University examines conduct of academic suspended by Reform UKThe Guardian · 1mo ago
- Cambridge University asks former chief crown prosecutor to open Arday reviewThe Guardian · 1mo ago
- Inquest opens into death of former Cambridge professor Jason ArdayThe Guardian · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Tony Chaves win the 2026 Cambridge mayoral election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Cambridge, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Cambridge, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Cambridge, Ontario.