Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 15.0¢
- Implied chance
- 15.0%
- Return if right
- 566.7%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 666.7 shares at 15.0¢ each.
YES wins: $666.67 back, a profit of $566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.68 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 08:34 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Japan’s Growth Minister on Proactive Fiscal Policy, YenBloomberg · 10h ago
- Could Morocco’s football chief Fouzi Lekjaa become its next prime minister?Al Jazeera · 20h ago
- Labour seeking ‘deeper relationship’ with EU under Burnham, new minister saysThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Ecuador charges ex-minister over presidential candidate assassination caseBBC News · 1d ago
- India: Ex-Education Minister Pradhan says Gen Z 'misled'Deutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Germany: Interior Minister warns of 'daily' hybrid warfareDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be three UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.