Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 87.0¢
- Implied chance
- 87.0%
- Return if right
- 14.9%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.
YES wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 14.0¢
- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Return if right
- 614.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.
NO wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:00 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- WATCH: Mass walkout before Netanyahu speech prompts fiery response from Israeli prime ministerFox News · 33m ago
- Italy ministers agree to ban burqa and niqab in school and cap foreigners in classBBC News · 1h ago
- REPLAY: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the UNGAFrance 24 · 1h ago
- Ed Miliband meets Iran’s foreign minister as Tehran gives US ultimatum on strait of HormuzThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Ministers reject dog ownership licence schemeBBC Politics · 3h ago
- Jerusalem Daily: Ben-Gvir sets out bid to become defence ministerAl Jazeera · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.