Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 34.0¢
- Implied chance
- 34.0%
- Return if right
- 194.1%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 294.1 shares at 34.0¢ each.
YES wins: $294.12 back, a profit of $194.12. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $207.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 69.0¢
- Implied chance
- 69.0%
- Return if right
- 44.9%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.
NO wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $48.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 11, 09:26 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Florida woman accused of faking cancer to scam hundreds out of $40K, police sayFox News · 3h ago
- Florida woman loses arm in Silver River alligator attack as boater races to save her lifeFox News · 16h ago
- Florida attorney general threatens charges after Cunningham is fouled in WNBA gameThe Hill · 20h ago
- Florida House candidate calls out Carville: 'foolhardy to be exclusive' to democratic socialistsThe Hill · 2d ago
- Florida attorney general says state doing 'everything in our power to seek truth' amid Fauci probeThe Hill · 2d ago
- Florida AG James Uthmeier says Fauci probe could uncover grounds for criminal liability despite pardonFox News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31,…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.