Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 63%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $33.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 39.0¢
- Implied chance
- 39.0%
- Return if right
- 156.4%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.
NO wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $143.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $300.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Florida deputies taser sword-wielding burglary suspect, video showsFox News · 7h ago
- Florida Democratic Senate nominee avoids trial over arrest at DeSantis officeThe Washington Post · 9h ago
- Florida couple recounts 'miraculous' rescue after surviving harrowing lightning strike during evening strollFox News · 12h ago
- Florida gov. candidate Byron Donalds responds after Trump mentions removed from siteCBS News · 17h ago
- Florida plastic surgeon found guilty of murdering attorney who vanished from bloody officeFox News · 1d ago
- DDHQ shifts Florida governor race to toss-upThe Hill · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.