Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?

Q: Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?

Prediction markets currently price this at 93%. A YES share costs 93.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 7.5% over 1.3y.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?$102 liquidity$5k volumecloses 1.3y

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 93.0¢
Implied chance: 93.0%
Return if right: 7.5%
Spread cost: 85%

If you put in $100

You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.

YES wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $43.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $51.06.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 60.6¢
Implied chance: 60.6%
Return if right: 65.0%
Spread cost: 67%

If you put in $100

You get 165.0 shares at 60.6¢ each.

NO wins: $165.02 back, a profit of $65.02. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $130.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $195.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 04:20 AM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Ro…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the composition of the next governing coalition is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Romania.