Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 27.9¢
- Implied chance
- 27.9%
- Return if right
- 258.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 358.4 shares at 27.9¢ each.
YES wins: $358.42 back, a profit of $258.42. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $270.37.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 73.9¢
- Implied chance
- 73.9%
- Return if right
- 35.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 135.3 shares at 73.9¢ each.
NO wins: $135.32 back, a profit of $35.32. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $36.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:07 AM
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be includ…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the composition of the next governing coalition is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Romania.
Other outcomes in Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
- Will S.O.S. Romania (SOS) be included in the next Romanian government?
- Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government?
- Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included in the next Romanian government?
- Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?
- Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?