Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
YES wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $71.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $426.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $23.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice19.5%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)51.5%
- Rodina17.5%
- Russian Ecological Party “The Greens”18.5%
Latest: Sep 2, 06:15 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- He Took a $60,000 City Road Job With a Pension. Social Security Treated the Year Like He Never Worked.Yahoo Finance · 20h ago
- Private Markets Set for Delay in Tapping German Pension CashBloomberg · 22h ago
- At 67, He Worked 40 Hours on One Bridge Slide. Social Security Kept Paying. His Union Pension Stopped.Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Embattled Pension Giant ATP Urged to Reassess Danish Stock BiasBloomberg · 2d ago
- Her Pension Sent a 13th Check She Never Asked For. It Followed Her Onto the Social Security Tax Worksheet.Yahoo Finance · 3d ago
- The Real Cost of Retiring in Costa Rica on Social Security and a Small PensionYahoo Finance · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice win …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.