Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Q: Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 21%. A YES share costs 20.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 378.5% over 2.8mo.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$7k liquidity$25k volumecloses 2.8mo

MidtermsElectionsUnited StatesPoliticsUS ElectionTrump

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 20.9¢
Implied chance: 20.9%
Return if right: 378.5%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 478.5 shares at 20.9¢ each.

YES wins: $478.47 back, a profit of $378.47. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $72.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $450.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 84.6¢
Implied chance: 84.6%
Return if right: 18.2%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 118.2 shares at 84.6¢ each.

NO wins: $118.20 back, a profit of $18.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.17.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 05:27 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House sea…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.