Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.9¢
- Implied chance
- 13.9%
- Return if right
- 619.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 719.4 shares at 13.9¢ each.
YES wins: $719.42 back, a profit of $619.42. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $29.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $649.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.2¢
- Implied chance
- 87.2%
- Return if right
- 14.7%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 114.7 shares at 87.2¢ each.
NO wins: $114.68 back, a profit of $14.68. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 01:25 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
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- Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
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- Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
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- Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
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