Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?

Q: Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?

Prediction markets currently price this at 30%. A YES share costs 30.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 233.3% over 2.1mo.

Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?$2k liquidity$6k volumecloses 2.1mo

PoliticsReferendareferendumSwitzerlandPopular VoteElections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 30.0¢
Implied chance: 30.0%
Return if right: 233.3%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.

YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $244.83.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 72.0¢
Implied chance: 72.0%
Return if right: 38.9%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.

NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $40.85.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 27, 09:14 PM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.