Will the Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 53.0¢
- Implied chance
- 53.0%
- Return if right
- 88.7%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 188.7 shares at 53.0¢ each.
YES wins: $188.68 back, a profit of $88.68. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 54.0¢
- Implied chance
- 54.0%
- Return if right
- 85.2%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 185.2 shares at 54.0¢ each.
NO wins: $185.19 back, a profit of $85.19. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- War Material amendment49.0%
- VAT federal decree65.0%
- Fireworks restriction initiative21.5%
- Marriage taxation initiative17.5%
Latest: Sep 27, 09:25 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Switzerland rejects stricter interpretation of its neutralityBBC News · 5h ago
- Switzerland: Voters reject stricter view of neutralityDeutsche Welle · 9h ago
- Switzerland votes on country's neutralityFrance 24 · 13h ago
- Switzerland: Referendum to decide on stricter neutralityDeutsche Welle · 14h ago
- Switzerland: Stricter neutrality set to be rejectedDeutsche Welle · 14h ago
- Switzerland’s neutrality vote is asking the wrong questionAl Jazeera · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
As of market creation, four referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on November 29, 2026: - Issue 1: Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ - Issue 3: Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ - Issue 4: Amendment of 19 December 2025 to the Federal Act on War Material (LFMG) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Other outcomes in Switzerland’s November Referendum: What will pass?
- Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
- Will the Popular initiative ‘For a restriction on fireworks’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?
- Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?