Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.6¢
- Implied chance
- 1.6%
- Return if right
- 6150.0%
- Spread cost
- 28%
If you put in $100
You get 6250.0 shares at 1.6¢ each.
YES wins: $6250.00 back, a profit of $6150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2445.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $8595.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 12:42 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
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How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Other outcomes in NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
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- Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?