Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Q: Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 42%. A YES share costs 42.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 138.1% over 1.5mo.

NZ Election: National Party # of seats?$340 liquidity$5k volumecloses 1.5mo

PoliticsNZElectionsGlobal ElectionsNew Zealand ElectionInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 42.0¢
Implied chance: 42.0%
Return if right: 138.1%
Spread cost: 19%

If you put in $100

You get 238.1 shares at 42.0¢ each.

YES wins: $238.10 back, a profit of $138.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $32.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $170.27.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 68.0¢
Implied chance: 68.0%
Return if right: 47.1%
Spread cost: 20%

If you put in $100

You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.

NO wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $58.73.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 08:28 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).