Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 37.0¢
- Implied chance
- 37.0%
- Return if right
- 170.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 270.3 shares at 37.0¢ each.
YES wins: $270.27 back, a profit of $170.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $11.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $181.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 66.0¢
- Implied chance
- 66.0%
- Return if right
- 51.5%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 151.5 shares at 66.0¢ each.
NO wins: $151.52 back, a profit of $51.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $55.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 03:31 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand H…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Other outcomes in NZ Election: National Party # of seats?
- Will the National Party win 25-29 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win 45-49 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win 50 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
- Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?