Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
YES wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
NO wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $455.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:30 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Democratic Michigan AG accuses her party of 'absolutely not' doing enough to counter antisemitismFox News · 1h ago
- Wisconsin prepares for primaries as Michigan's El-Sayed reacts to Trump's attacksCBS News · 7h ago
- Decades of abuse revealed at Michigan art school. And, the Iran war's impact on midtermsNPR · 11h ago
- Bernie's revolution gets a test run for 2028 in Michigan and WisconsinAxios · 1d ago
- Fetterman 'dares' El-Sayed to stick with Piker, claims Michigan nominee has 'little man syndrome energy'Fox News · 1d ago
- El-Sayed spoke with Obama as Michigan Democrats look to uniteABC News · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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