Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

Q: Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 60%. A YES share costs 60.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 66.7% over 2.8mo.

Which Senate races will be within 5%?$408 liquidity$1k volumecloses 2.8mo

SenateMidtermsPoliticsUS Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 60.0¢
Implied chance: 60.0%
Return if right: 66.7%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 166.7 shares at 60.0¢ each.

YES wins: $166.67 back, a profit of $66.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 47.0¢
Implied chance: 47.0%
Return if right: 112.8%
Spread cost: 13%

If you put in $100

You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.

NO wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $17.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:06 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.