Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 65.0¢
- Implied chance
- 65.0%
- Return if right
- 53.8%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 153.8 shares at 65.0¢ each.
YES wins: $153.85 back, a profit of $53.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $57.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 38.0¢
- Implied chance
- 38.0%
- Return if right
- 163.2%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 263.2 shares at 38.0¢ each.
NO wins: $263.16 back, a profit of $163.16. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $173.97.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Jeffries says House Democrats reaching to flip Trump districtsABC News · 2h ago
- Democratic rep: Administration 'has failed to present a strategy' in Iran warThe Hill · 7h ago
- Majority Leader Thune warns Chuck Schumer 'lives in fear' of socialists taking over Democratic PartyFox News · 9h ago
- Emanuel urges Democrats to prioritize ethics reform over potential third Trump impeachmentThe Hill · 10h ago
- CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Democrats maintain House advantageCBS News · 11h ago
- Latino voters swing back to Democrats ahead of midterm elections: pollFox News · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Democrats win Grand Traverse County in the Michigan…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Grand Traverse County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.