Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.2¢
- Implied chance
- 5.2%
- Return if right
- 1823.1%
- Spread cost
- 37%
If you put in $100
You get 1923.1 shares at 5.2¢ each.
YES wins: $1923.08 back, a profit of $1823.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1062.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $2885.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.5¢
- Implied chance
- 98.5%
- Return if right
- 1.5%
- Spread cost
- 56%
If you put in $100
You get 101.5 shares at 98.5¢ each.
NO wins: $101.52 back, a profit of $1.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.47.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 05:46 AM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Serbia opens factory to assemble Israeli-made dronesAl Jazeera · 7d ago
- Serbia: President Vucic criticizes Kosovo war crimes verdictDeutsche Welle · 7d ago
- Serbia's President Vucic criticizes Kosovo war crimes verdictDeutsche Welle · 7d ago
- Serbia, the conflicted EU candidateDeutsche Welle · 15d ago
- Serbia's Vucic calls snap elections after nearly two years of protestsFrance 24 · 15d ago
- Serbia dissolves parliament as snap elections calledDeutsche Welle · 15d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
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