Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Q: Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 0%. A YES share costs 0.2¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 49900.0% over 4.7mo.

Highest grossing movie in 2026?$236k liquidity$807k volumecloses 4.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.2¢
Implied chance: 0.2%
Return if right: 49900.0%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 50000.0 shares at 0.2¢ each.

YES wins: $50000.00 back, a profit of $49900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16666.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $66566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 05:21 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Disney CEO Admits ‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu’ and ‘Moana’ Underperformed at Box Office but ‘Fueled Other Parts of Our Company’Variety · 5d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossin…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.