Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 69.0¢
- Implied chance
- 69.0%
- Return if right
- 44.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.
YES wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 32.0¢
- Implied chance
- 32.0%
- Return if right
- 212.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.
NO wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 06:14 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Korea Box Office: ‘The Odyssey’ Bests ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’Variety · 13h ago
- China Box Office: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Retains Crown as ‘Once Upon a Time in the Middle East,’ ‘The Odyssey’ Surge in PreviewsVariety · 14h ago
- ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Becomes Second-Fastest Movie to Hit $1 Billion Overseas, Powers to $1.67 Billion GloballyVariety · 1d ago
- Box Office: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Flies to Third-Biggest Second Weekend of All Time With $145 MillionVariety · 1d ago
- Box Office: ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Swings into Second Weekend With $43 Million on FridayVariety · 2d ago
- ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Scores $145M for Third-Best Second Weekend EverThe Hollywood Reporter · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic openin…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.