Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Q: Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 92%. A YES share costs 92.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 8.7% over 4.7mo.

Highest grossing movie in 2026?$69k liquidity$552k volumecloses 4.7mo

Rewards 20, 4.5, 50The OdysseyCultureMoviesSpider-Man

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 92.0¢
Implied chance: 92.0%
Return if right: 8.7%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.

YES wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 9.0¢
Implied chance: 9.0%
Return if right: 1011.1%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $65.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $1076.47.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 08:36 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.