Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 29.0¢
- Implied chance
- 29.0%
- Return if right
- 244.8%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.
YES wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $63.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $308.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 80.0¢
- Implied chance
- 80.0%
- Return if right
- 25.0%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 125.0 shares at 80.0¢ each.
NO wins: $125.00 back, a profit of $25.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $32.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX stock rebounds to $135 IPO price after post-debut slumpYahoo Finance · 12h ago
- SpaceX's First Lockup Expired Last Week. Why Didn't the Stock Crash?Yahoo Finance · 13h ago
- A 5-Year Plan for Investing in SpaceX Today at $133Yahoo Finance · 13h ago
- SpaceX Stock Has Plunged 34%. Elon Musk's "Secret Master Plan" Points to What Could Come Next.Yahoo Finance · 13h ago
- Here's how SpaceX hits this $100 billion number in under 5 monthsYahoo Finance · 13h ago
- Up 26%, SpaceX Briefly Breaks Above IPO Price. Fundamental Turnaround or Short Squeeze?Yahoo Finance · 14h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SpaceX have fewer than 13 launches in August 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.