Will SpaceX have 16+ launches in August 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.0¢
- Implied chance
- 9.0%
- Return if right
- 1011.1%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 1111.1 shares at 9.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1111.11 back, a profit of $1011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $707.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $1718.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 65%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX Stock Has Plunged 34%. Elon Musk's "Secret Master Plan" Points to What Could Come Next.Yahoo Finance · 17m ago
- Here's how SpaceX hits this $100 billion number in under 5 monthsYahoo Finance · 17m ago
- Up 26%, SpaceX Briefly Breaks Above IPO Price. Fundamental Turnaround or Short Squeeze?Yahoo Finance · 32m ago
- Analyst Warns Alphabet (GOOG) Faces Two Major AI Problems; SpaceX (SPCX) a Better AI Bet?Yahoo Finance · 1h ago
- SpaceX’s stock moves above its IPO price for the first time in almost a monthMarketWatch · 2h ago
- SpaceX Rivals Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile About To Report Earnings. What To Expect.Yahoo Finance · 2h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SpaceX have 16+ launches in August 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.