Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.7¢
- Implied chance
- 4.7%
- Return if right
- 2027.7%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2127.7 shares at 4.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2127.66 back, a profit of $2027.66. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.88 of that profit. Without it you would make $2050.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.4¢
- Implied chance
- 95.4%
- Return if right
- 4.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 104.8 shares at 95.4¢ each.
NO wins: $104.82 back, a profit of $4.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 23, 08:11 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- SpaceX Stock: Boom or Bust?Yahoo Finance · 5h ago
- Top analyst sees trouble looming for SpaceX stockYahoo Finance · 21h ago
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire makes backdoor SpaceX playYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- D.E. Shaw Just Disclosed a $912 Million SpaceX Stake and a 58% Broadcom Cut in the Same QuarterYahoo Finance · 1d ago
- SpaceX Stock Is up 32% Since Aug. 1. Is it Too Late to Buy?Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- Elon Musk Owns 48.4% of SpaceX, a New Filing Shows. Here's Why That Matters for Everyone Else Holding the Stock.Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.