Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.1¢
- Implied chance
- 1.1%
- Return if right
- 8990.9%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 9090.9 shares at 1.1¢ each.
YES wins: $9090.91 back, a profit of $8990.91. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2673.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $11664.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.4¢
- Implied chance
- 99.4%
- Return if right
- 0.6%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 100.6 shares at 99.4¢ each.
NO wins: $100.60 back, a profit of $0.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 8, 09:43 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Inside SpaceX’s new look for AI data centres in orbitAl Jazeera · 14h ago
- SpaceX in Talks to Borrow $40 Billion to Buy Nvidia ChipsBloomberg · 18h ago
- NASA's SpaceX Crew-12 heads back to EarthCBS News · 19h ago
- SpaceX alumni nab $100M to rethink shipping with autonomous freight trainsTechCrunch · 20h ago
- SpaceX Credit-Risk Gauge Hits Fresh High on Fundraising ReportsBloomberg · 22h ago
- Stock Rally Fades on Higher Oil Prices; SpaceX in Talks to Buy Nvidia ChipsBloomberg · 23h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Source: https://www.spacex.com/launches