Will South African inflation be between 2.9% and 3.2% in 2026?

Q: Will South African inflation be between 2.9% and 3.2% in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 6.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1438.5% over 3.3mo.

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026$2k liquidity$3k volumecloses 3.3mo

EconomySouth AfricaMacro IndicatorsInflationCPI

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 6.5¢
Implied chance: 6.5%
Return if right: 1438.5%
Spread cost: 38%

If you put in $100

You get 1538.5 shares at 6.5¢ each.

YES wins: $1538.46 back, a profit of $1438.46. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $871.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $2309.64.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.2¢
Implied chance: 98.2%
Return if right: 1.8%
Spread cost: 58%

If you put in $100

You get 101.8 shares at 98.2¢ each.

NO wins: $101.83 back, a profit of $1.83. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 12, 02:41 AM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will South African inflation be between 2.9% and 3.2% in 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report. The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874

Source: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859