Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?

Q: Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?

Prediction markets currently price this at 23%. A YES share costs 23.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 334.8% over 3.1mo.

MLB: 2026 NL Hank Aaron Winner$3k liquidity$10k volumecloses 3.1mo

Sportshank aaronNational LeaguebaseballAwardsMLB

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 23.0¢
Implied chance: 23.0%
Return if right: 334.8%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.

YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 78.0¢
Implied chance: 78.0%
Return if right: 28.2%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 128.2 shares at 78.0¢ each.

NO wins: $128.21 back, a profit of $28.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:21 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Pete Crow-Armstrong gets honest about MVP race with Shohei Ohtani, jokes he needs to start pitchingFox News · 4d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron A…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.