Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.7¢
- Implied chance
- 3.7%
- Return if right
- 2602.7%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 2702.7 shares at 3.7¢ each.
YES wins: $2702.70 back, a profit of $2602.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $238.47 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.9¢
- Implied chance
- 96.9%
- Return if right
- 3.2%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 103.2 shares at 96.9¢ each.
NO wins: $103.20 back, a profit of $3.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Treasury Secretary Invokes Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto in Plea for Clarity ActDecrypt · 11d ago
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Urges Lawmakers to Vote on Clarity Act, Quotes Satoshi NakamotoBitcoin Magazine · 11d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.