Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.6¢
- Implied chance
- 2.6%
- Return if right
- 3746.2%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 3846.2 shares at 2.6¢ each.
YES wins: $3846.15 back, a profit of $3746.15. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1153.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $4900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.6¢
- Implied chance
- 98.6%
- Return if right
- 1.4%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 101.4 shares at 98.6¢ each.
NO wins: $101.42 back, a profit of $1.42. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Big Questions: Does Satoshi actually own 1.1 million Bitcoin?Cointelegraph · 2d ago
- Bitcoin May Surge to $300K, Says Ran Neuner, as $48M Satoshi-Era Whales AwakenYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Satoshi-era Bitcoin wakes after 16 years of dormancy as 600 BTC movesCointelegraph · 18d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.