Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
YES wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $1961.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.2¢
- Implied chance
- 95.2%
- Return if right
- 5.0%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 105.0 shares at 95.2¢ each.
NO wins: $105.04 back, a profit of $5.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Treasury Secretary Invokes Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto in Plea for Clarity ActDecrypt · 11d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.