Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.2¢
- Implied chance
- 3.2%
- Return if right
- 3025.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 3125.0 shares at 3.2¢ each.
YES wins: $3125.00 back, a profit of $3025.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $49.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $3074.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.9¢
- Implied chance
- 96.9%
- Return if right
- 3.2%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 103.2 shares at 96.9¢ each.
NO wins: $103.20 back, a profit of $3.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Big Questions: Does Satoshi actually own 1.1 million Bitcoin?Cointelegraph · 2d ago
- Bitcoin May Surge to $300K, Says Ran Neuner, as $48M Satoshi-Era Whales AwakenYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- Satoshi-era Bitcoin wakes after 16 years of dormancy as 600 BTC movesCointelegraph · 18d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.