Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 64%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
YES wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $188.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $292.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 94%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $32.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $34.23.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Sagal Abdi-Wali24.5%
- Pat Callaghan24.5%
- Keith Moffitt5.5%
- Luisa Porritt4.5%
- Charlie Clinton4.0%
- James White25.0%
Latest: Sep 1, 06:18 PM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
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How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Other outcomes in Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner
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