Will David Stansell win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Q: Will David Stansell win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 50%. A YES share costs 50.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 100.0% over 9.9mo.

Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Winner$64 liquidity$0 volumecloses 9.9mo

UKStarmerPoliticsElectionsUK ElectionsMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 50.0¢
Implied chance: 50.0%
Return if right: 100.0%
Spread cost: 65%

If you put in $100

You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.

YES wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $184.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $284.62.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 94%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $33.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $35.14.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 1, 06:18 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is expected to be held in 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).