Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.2¢
- Implied chance
- 3.2%
- Return if right
- 3025.0%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 3125.0 shares at 3.2¢ each.
YES wins: $3125.00 back, a profit of $3025.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1636.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $4661.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 53%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:58 AM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
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How this market resolves
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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