Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.2¢
- Implied chance
- 1.2%
- Return if right
- 8233.3%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 8333.3 shares at 1.2¢ each.
YES wins: $8333.33 back, a profit of $8233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2192.98 of that profit. Without it you would make $10426.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Jair Bolsonaro0.9%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva93.9%
- Flavio Bolsonaro85.5%
- Renan Santos8.5%
- Ronaldo Caiado2.1%
- Romeu Zema1.3%
Latest: Aug 10, 04:14 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Other outcomes in Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- Will Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?