Will Robert Downey Jr. be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Q: Will Robert Downey Jr. be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 4.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1983.3% over 4.7mo.

#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?$47k liquidity$300 volumecloses 4.7mo

TechgoogleCultureCelebritiesBest of 2026Google Search

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.8¢
Implied chance: 4.8%
Return if right: 1983.3%
Spread cost: 46%

If you put in $100

You get 2083.3 shares at 4.8¢ each.

YES wins: $2083.33 back, a profit of $1983.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1690.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $3673.58.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.5¢
Implied chance: 99.5%
Return if right: 0.5%
Spread cost: 82%

If you put in $100

You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.

NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.72.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 02:16 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Robert Downey Jr. be the #1 searched person on Google t…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.