Will Republicans win the Iowa Governor election and Democrats win the Iowa Senate election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $2122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 11, 10:22 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump to give Republicans a 3-1 FCC majority, isn't filling empty Democratic seatArs Technica · 7h ago
- Minnesota primaries could mark change of path for Democrats and RepublicansThe Guardian · 12h ago
- Republican, Democratic strategists on controversial campaign funding ahead of midtermsCBS News · 1d ago
- Democratic strategist James Carville says he could become a Republican under one major conditionFox News · 5d ago
- Democratic socialist victories offer Republicans a five-fold giftThe Hill · 5d ago
- Senate Democrats knock Republicans over 'assault' on Social SecurityThe Hill · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Republicans win the Iowa Governor election and Democrat…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other". For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.